The volume of raw materials has led to the weakening of nickel fundamentals, and today's Shanghai nickel disk is volatile and downward [SMM Nickel Brief Comment]

March 25th, SMM News: On March 25th, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 135,110 yuan/ton and closed at 133,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. Intraday trading weakened compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in trading volume of 43,048 lots and a decrease in open interest of 5,215 lots. This combination indicates that both bulls and bears have reduced their trading activities and tend to wait and see, with bulls actively closing positions. The decrease in trading volume indicates that the bulls are closing positions more rationally, seeking ideal prices rather than acting urgently. Therefore, the market is mostly in a gentle decline, with a high probability of continued downward movement. From a macro perspective, as of March 20th, the upper limit of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision reached 5.5%, and the Fed once again maintained the status quo. Powell's statement did not reveal a clear interest rate cut timeline, and this interest rate decision had a minimal impact on the market. From a fundamental perspective, the approval progress of nickel mines is accelerating, and Indonesian intermediate projects are gradually increasing production, weakening market expectations for tight raw material supply. Overall, it is expected that nickel prices will continue to oscillate weakly in the future.